Expanding of the planted areas of winter crops in Russia was reasonable – Roshydromet

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APK-Inform

2462

 

In 2016, Russia completely realized its plan for the planting campaign of winter crops. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, the planted areas reached 17.4 mln ha, and significantly exceeded the figure of the previous year (16.3 mln ha). So, the head of the department of agro-meteorological forecasts at the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, Anna Strashnaya reported about the impact of weather factor on such results, and expectations for the harvest in the spring.

 

- Anna Ilyinichna, first of all, I would like to know Your estimations of the results of the winter crops planting campaign in 2016...

As for the general estimation of the weather conditions during the planting campaign of winter crops in the autumn 2016, we can say that most territory of the grain-plating regions of Russia faced good and satisfactory conditions. There was sufficient level of heat and moisture content in the soil for sprouting and development of plants.

However, in some raions of the southern half of the Volga Federal District agrarians faced great problems. Very dry weather conditions in August were favorable for harvesting works, but deficit of precipitations in the reporting month made difficulties to the planting campaign of winter crops at the reasonable time. Thus, in August in most raions of the Republic of Bashkortostan, in some raions of the Republics of Tatarstan, Mordovia, Udmurtia, and Orenburg, Penza, Samara, Saratov and Ulyanovsk oblasts there were only 10-50% of standard precipitations, as well as soil drought events. Many agrarians did not want to risk to plant crops in the dry soil, and suspended the planting campaign, or chose the best fields for planting works, where topsoil layers had at least 12-13 mm of productive moisture.

 

- How much did weather factors influence on the winter crops planting campaign in the current year?

In terms of the increasing changeability of weather, agrarians have to prepare for any weather events. So, in the autumn it rained only in the first ten days of September, when agrarians still had chances to plant crops in southern and south-western raions of the Volga Federal District. In the changed agro-climatic conditions they can plant crops until September 9-10 in the optimum terms, and in the south of the Central District – until September 10-15. By the end of vegetation processes within the planting campaign, the plants reach the tillering period, which provides them with more successful overwintering period (compared with less-developed crops). Agricultural enterprises were ready for such situation development, so they made good work with the planting campaign processes in the reporting terms. However, in the east of the Volga District, for example in the Republic of Bashkortostan and Orenburg oblast, it was already unreasonable to keep such terms, since there was a high risk to receive the sprouts only which will pass the winter in significantly worse conditions, compared with the crops which reached the tillering stage. Also, the Republic of Bashkortostan stopped planting of winter crops in the raions with severe soil drought.

At the same time, in some raions of the Northwestern District, in the north of the Ural District, and in some north-western raions of the Central District, the weather conditions for planting works in August and first half of September started somewhat worsening, and agrarians stopped field works due to frequent precipitations and water saturation of the topsoil layers. As a reminder, in August the regions faced more than one and half of the monthly standard of precipitations. As a result, in Leningrad and Novgorod oblasts there were no sprouts of winter crops at the end of vegetation period throughout 8-10% of the planted areas, due to late planting terms.

 

- How did the situation develop in the south of Russia?

In most territory of the Southern and North Caucasian Federal Districts, agrarians mainly provided autumn planting works in September-October period in the terms close to long-time average annual standards. Moisture reserves in the topsoil layer were good and satisfactory, which provided appearance of even sprouts and further development of the plants; only in some eastern raions the moisture reserves reduced, and were quite poor in some cases. For example, in Kalmykia at the end of vegetation processes almost 15% of winter crops areas were in poor condition, due to soil drought events.

 

- What was the condition of winter crops in the beginning of winter?

In the current year, vegetation of winter crops in the European territory of Russia stopped in the middle of October, in 7-15 days earlier compared with the average long-term standard, while in recent years the processes stopped much later than usual. There was snow covering formed in most raions. However, in the south of the territory winter crops resumed their vegetation processes in the periods of warming even in November. In most northern raions of the Southern District, and in the south of the District, and in most raions of the North Caucasian District, at the fields of early planting terms (early October) winter crops reached tillering period. In the Central, Volga and Northwestern Districts winter crops, which were planted in August and early September, also reached tillering period. Their condition was good and satisfactory.

We should note rather difficult conditions for the planting campaign of winter crops in the autumn in some raions of the North Caucasian District, where agrarians provided winter crops planting in the second half of November (later compared with the optimum terms), and even in early December, and in such raions winter crops did not sprout throughout 30-35% of the planted areas, due to frequent rains (in October, precipitations exceeded the monthly standard by 2-3 times) and excessive soil moistening.

 

- Would You make any general estimation of the results of the autumn planting campaign in Russia in terms of the abovementioned situation?

Roshydromet usually provides its estimation of winter crops condition using the data as of November 25. As of the reporting date, Russian agrarians planted winter crops for grain and green fodder throughout the areas of 17.32 mln ha.

Observation results from hydrometeorological stations, ground-level monitoring of crops, satellite measurements, as well as various calculations, showed that winter grain crops in the Russian Federation throughout the areas of 16.8 mln ha (97% of the general planted areas) were in good and satisfactory condition. The planted areas with poor crops (thinned and unsprouted crops) totaled only 0.52 mln ha only, or 3% of the general areas. These are good results. During 10 recent years, such figures of winter crops in poor condition (3-4%) were observed only in the autumns of 2004, 2008 and 2013. Therefore, winter crops safely passed the winter periods, which also were rather warm.

 

- In conclusion, would You make a preliminary forecast of the harvest of winter crops in 2017?

As for the estimation of possible harvest of winter crops in 2017, I should note that it is quite difficult to give such forecast in December. It would be more objective in February, when our weather stations provide monitoring results of winter crops conditions. However, we can confidently say that in terms of good care and nutrition of crops, the harvest will be significantly higher compared with the average figures during 10 recent years.

The chance that in 2017 the harvest volumes of winter crops will exceed the last year volumes, is not high due to the fact that in the southern regions winter crops did not reach its tillering period by the end of vegetation processes throughout nearly 30-40% of the areas, although their general condition was good. They will mainly tiller in the spring, which will be less productive.

 

Interviewed by Alexander Pryadko, APK-Inform Agency

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