Soybeans remain one of the most attractive crop in terms of prices for Ukrainian farmers. Thus, in 2024 soybean planting area is expected to expand. According to the survey conducted by APK-Inform in February-March, the vast majority of respondents growing soybeans plan either to keep the acreage unchanged (82%), or increase them (16%). This expansion will be compensated by lower areas under winter crops, sunflower seed, or other spring crops.
According to the APK-Inform forecast, the planting area under soybeans in 2024 may increase to 2.3 mln ha (+19% by 2023), which will become a new record for the industry (so far, the maximum for this crop was 2.2 mln ha in 2015). The production of soybeans in Ukraine is also expected to be at a record level and, according to preliminary estimates, may reach 6 mln tonnes (+17%).
At the same time, according to APK-Inform, the area under sunflower seed most likely will not change significantly. The majority of respondents cultivating this oilseed plan to keep the area under it mainly unchanged (87% of respondents). And those who plan to reduce or increase them, mainly announced that this will happen at the expense of the area under rapeseed.
"Our estimate of the planting area under sunflower seed in 2024 so far is 5.8 mln ha, which is almost at the level of 2023. Under favorable weather conditions, the oilseed crop can reach 13.9 mln tonnes (+1% by 2023), which is still inferior to the pre-war indicator", - analysts of APK-Inform note.
The area planted under rapeseed in 2024 will most likely decrease due to the "dry" autumn, as a result of which some farmers decided to abandon the planting of winter oilseeds. However, a little more than half of agricultural producers who planted winter rapeseed in the fall of 2023 interviewed by APK-Inform reported that the crops were in good or excellent condition (51% of interviewed). Another 43% reported satisfactory condition of oilseed crops and only 5% reported unsatisfactory condition.
The area of spring rapeseed may grow to a record level in 2024, given the attractive price of this oilseed. However, the total area planted under winter and summer rapeseed, according to APK-Inform preliminary assessment, will decrease by 6%. This indicator will still remain quite high compared to previous years, amounting to about 1.4 mln ha. The yield of this oilseed may decrease in 2024 by 9% to 4.2 mln tonnes.
APK-Inform analysts note that the forecast is preliminary and is based on a survey of agriproducers and average productivity indicators. It takes into account current price trends and market sentiment, but will significantly depend on weather conditions in the spring and may be adjusted.
Read more about the trends of the Ukrainian oilseed market in the monthly analytical reviews in the "Analytics" section of the website.
The trends and prospects of the oilseed market of Ukraine, the Black Sea region, and the world as a whole will be discussed at the VegOils&Meals Trade international conference, which will be held on June 14 in Seville, Spain.
To participate – register here
