Abnormally high temperatures persisting in Ukraine for an extended period are raising serious concerns about the future yields of key oilseed crops. At this stage, several market participants report potential underperformance in the harvest of late spring crops, including sunflower and soybeans. Due to unfavorable weather conditions for vegetation, the yield will be lower than previously expected.
Given the current situation, analysts at APK-Inform have revised their yield estimates for sunflower and soybeans downwards by 1-2%. However, if high temperatures continue in the main growing regions and sufficient rainfall does not occur, the production forecast may be lowered again.
According to the updated agency assessment, sunflower production in Ukraine in 2024 may amount to 14.4-14.5 million tons, which is almost at the previous year's level (-1% compared to the previous estimate; -2% compared to 2023). This level can be achieved despite reduced yield due to an increase in the planted area to 5.9 million hectares (+1% compared to 2023).
It should be noted that, according to preliminary data, the planted area under sunflower in Ukraine in 2024 was no more than 5.2 million hectares (-2% compared to the same period in 2023). However, considering the long-standing practice of re-evaluating the planting area of this oilseed, as well as replanting sunflower in some areas damaged by frost in spring, we forecast that the planted area under this crop has still increased, albeit slightly.
The 2024 soybean production estimate was also reduced. However, given that a significant portion of the planting area for this crop has shifted to the western part of the country, where summer temperatures are closer to the average of previous years and more rainfall has been observed, it is expected that production of this crop in 2024 will still be record-breaking, amounting to about 5.9 million tons (-2% compared to the previous estimate; +13% compared to 2023).
