According to the updated forecast of APK-Inform Agency, Ukraine's rapeseed production in 2024 may be slightly lower than in 2023, amounting to about 4.3 mln tonnes. This is 4% higher than the previous estimate, but 7% lower than in 2023.
The forecast was revised due to the increase in the planted area under this crop to 1.49 mln ha (+4% compared to the previous estimate; -4% compared to 2023).
The export potential of rapeseed in 2024/25 MY is also slightly increased to 3.6 mln tonnes (+2% compared to the previous estimate), which is also slightly lower than in the previous season-2023/24 (-2%).
Currently, rapeseed is entering the active flowering phase almost all over the country, and this phase came a bit earlier this year compared to last year due to early and warm spring.
It is worth noting that the condition of winter rapeseed after wintering was assessed by farmers as mostly good and satisfactory. However, the lack of moisture observed in the soil due to the rather dry March and the first half of April has raised concerns about the yield potential. It is expected that the situation may be somewhat affected by the cyclone that entered the country this week.
It is worth noting that the popularity of rapeseed in Ukraine has increased significantly in recent years, which was facilitated by the consistently high demand for the Ukrainian oilseed from European importers.
Therefore, rapeseed is currently one of the most highly liquid crops in Ukraine and is a fairly quick way for farmers to raise funds.
Over the past few years, the price of rapeseed on the domestic market has been quite attractive for farmers and is second only to soybean prices among the major oilseeds, but is quite sensitive to global production and to price dynamics on the European market for this oilseed.
In the new season, the prospects for Ukrainian rapeseed are also quite good: the production of this oilseed in the EU is expected to decline (from -2% according to the European Commission to -10% according to Strategie Grains), which is already creating a rush in the market. However, according to the recent estimates of FAS USDA, in 2024 the production of Australian canola may increase by 14%, which, together with Canadian oilseed, is a direct competitor of Ukrainian rapeseed in the European market.
The trends and prospects of the oilseed market of Ukraine and the European Union will be discussed at the international conference VegOils&Meals Trade, which will be held on June 14 in Seville, Spain.
To participate in the event, please register here.
