Rapeseed export from Ukraine in the 2025/26 season may fall to its lowest level since the 2022/23 MY and is preliminarily estimated by APK-Inform at around 2.7-2.8 million tonnes (–13% compared to the current season). This decline is due to expected lower production of the oilseed, as well as a potential increase in demand from the processing sector.
Therefore, rapeseed production in Ukraine in 2025 may decline to its lowest level since 2022 due to a reduction in the area sown with winter crops. This was caused by a lack of moisture in the autumn of 2024 and poor overwintering of crops in several key rapeseed-producing regions. In addition, cold weather, frosts, and snowfall during the first ten days of April could further worsen the situation.
According to APK-Inform's estimates, the area sown with rapeseed amounts to 1.34 million hectares (–4%), while the harvested area may not exceed 1.17 million hectares (–10%) and could drop even further due to unfavorable weather conditions. The forecast for rapeseed production in 2025 stands at around 3.35–3.4 million tonnes (–8%).
As for the distribution of rapeseed in the new season, the situation will largely depend on the tariff policies of China and the United States.
“Right now, we’re seeing a deterioration in trade relations between the U.S. and China, the U.S. and Canada, and also between China and Canada. This will lead to a reshuffling of trade flows of canola and processed products, and could also impact farmers’ planting decisions for this crop in key regions,” oilseed market analyst at APK-Inform, Svitlana Kyrychok noted.
Thus, in Canada, canola planting areas may shrink due to concerns about declining demand from the processing industry amid import tariffs imposed by China and the U.S. However, according to preliminary forecasts from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Canada’s canola production in 2025 could rise to 18.46 million tonnes. This increase is expected despite the projected reduction in planted area, as improved soil moisture conditions in key producing regions may boost yields.
At the same time, several countries may attempt to replace Canadian oil and meal on the Chinese market by increasing their own rapeseed/canola production. However, timing remains a key issue - the products are already in short supply, and China needs increased shipments now, not in the next season.
In particular, Russian and Belarusian farmers may increase the area sown with spring rapeseed in 2025, driven by the growing export of rapeseed oil and meal to China over the past several seasons. Moreover, Russian companies could boost shipments of rapeseed processing products as early as the current season, as the country still holds stocks of the oilseed.
Australia may also benefit from the situation, as it still has canola stocks, and its trade relations with China started improving last year. Moreover, the planting season in the country has not yet begun, so the area planted with oilseeds could also increase.
So far, China has been meeting its demand for rapeseed oil with Russian products, as well as products from the UAE and Belarus, while Canada has been the main supplier of rapeseed meal. It is unlikely that China will be able to quickly fulfill its demand for this product.
By the way, the raw material for processing in the UAE is almost 100% from Canada, and so far there have been no clarifications on whether this oil is also subject to tariffs. Therefore, factories in the UAE could also increase exports to the Chinese market.
Recently, there have been reports about China purchasing rapeseed meal from India. However, Indian rapeseed meal will only be able to significantly increase its presence in the Chinese market in the upcoming season.
In addition, shipments of Canadian canola remain tariff-free and could also increase in this direction.
Due to trade wars, there is an expected increase in demand for Ukrainian rapeseed oil and meal from China in the new season, which could contribute to the growth of domestic processing. However, this will depend on the cost ratio between raw materials and oil in the Ukrainian market. Additionally, Ukrainian companies may face difficulties in forming stockpiles, as farmers are hesitant to sell raw materials on forward contracts.
“Trade may remain weak until the impact of frosts and snow on oilseeds in several European countries, including Ukraine, is assessed. It is also important to consider that if the tariff situation does not change before the new season and all tariffs on Canada remain in effect, Canadian canola could increase its presence in the European market. Therefore, the 'window' for Ukrainian oilseeds will still be limited to the first half of the season,” noted S. Kyrychok.
