The supply of sunflower oil from the Black Sea countries to the global market will decrease by 18% in 2024/25 MY. This forecast was announced by Khrystyna Yavorska, Senior Oilseeds Market Analyst at Argus International Pricing Agency, during the XXII International Conference Fat-and-Oil Industry-2024 in Kyiv on October 30.
She noted that this is primarily due to a decrease in sunflower harvest in major regions. For example, in Bulgaria and Romania this year, the gross harvest of the oilseed reached a 10-year low and is estimated at 1.6 mln tons and 1.4 mln tonnes respectively.
In Ukraine, according to the USDA forecast, the sunflower harvest in the current year will amount to 12.5 mln tonnes (-3 mln tonnes), while the Argus estimate is slightly lower - 12 mln tonnes, moreover, it is likely to decrease. As of October 24, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, the country harvested only 9.5 mln tonnes of the oilseed.
As for the Russian Federation, according to the USDA forecast, the sunflower harvest in 2024 will decrease by 1 mln tonnes to 16 mln tonnes, while the Argus estimate is slightly higher - 16.3 mln tonnes. At the same time, according to the speaker, Russian farmers note the low quality of the harvest (in particular, low oil content of seeds).
“The prices for Ukrainian sunflower and sunflower oil have already increased by 24% and 11%, respectively, since the beginning of the season, but the margins of Ukrainian processors remain extremely low,” the analyst emphasized.
