In the 2024/25 MY, the processing of the three key oilseeds in Ukraine could decrease by 11% to 15.8-16 million tons. This forecast was presented by oilseed market analyst of APK-Inform, Svitlana Kirichok, at the international conference «Baltic Grains & Oils Conference» on April 16 in Riga (Latvia).
In addition, according to her, the structure of processing will change significantly: for the first time, the share of sunflower will decrease to 81% compared to 87-88% in previous MY while the share of soybean processing will increase to 15% (up from 10-11% in previous seasons).
According to the speaker, sunflower processing could drop to a record low for the past 9 seasons, reaching around 13 million tons. The lowest figure during this period was recorded only in the 2021/22 MY. At the same time, soybean processing volumes could reach a historical high of 2.4-2.5 million tons, a 24% increase compared to the 2023/24 MY.
According to the analyst, the active processing of soybeans is largely driven by several factors, including a higher soybean harvest in 2024, attractive raw material prices, and greater profitability of soybean processing compared to sunflower processing this season.
“At the same time, the growing demand for Ukrainian soybean meal in Europe, along with the announced construction of several large oil extraction plants in the western part of the country-which will also specialize in soybean processing-could help maintain a high pace of processing in the future. This, in turn, may further boost farmers' interest in growing soybeans,” says S. Kirichok.
