Tashkent is a city of bread... This phrase was repeatedly mentioned by the experts of the international conference Asia Grains & Oils Conference in Tashkent 2024 during their speeches. It truly reflects the essence of not only the oldest city in Central Asia, the capital of Uzbekistan, but also the country itself. Uzbekistan is famous not only for its flatbreads and pilaf, but also for its hospitality, as all the participants of the event could see.
So, on September 18-19, the capital of Uzbekistan hosted the fourth international conference Asia Grains & Oils Conference in Tashkent 2024. The event was organized by APK-Inform Asia (Kazakhstan) in partnership with Inter Standard Consult (Uzbekistan) and Expo Time (Kazakhstan). The event has already become a tradition for the Central Asian region and has become a favorite of many companies that took part in it for the fourth time. Some joined for the first time and were pleasantly surprised by the atmosphere or, in modern terms, its “vibe” 😊, leaving grateful feedback to the organizers.
Yermek Kaparinov, Director of ARAMAX LLC
“I would like to express my sincere gratitude for the invitation and the opportunity to participate in the Asia Grains & Oil Conference in Tashkent 2024. It was a pleasure to attend and visit you. Your attention to detail, sensitivity and care make every event unique, and this time was no exception.
The conference was held at the highest level, as always, with an excellent line-up of participants and a rich program. The format was not only informative, but also exceptional in its organization, from the first day to the second, including excellent coffee breaks and culinary breaks. You have done a tremendous job, much of which goes unreported, but I can see how much work, effort and time has gone into this success. The score is a solid 10 out of 10. I really enjoyed everything and wish you continued success. Let your next conference gather at least 500 participants - I am sure you have the potential and vision to do so, and you will be able to enter not only the Central Asian market, but the entire post-USSR region.”
Said Davydov, Head of Department, BFG INTERNATIONAL FZCO
“Thank you very much for organizing such a great conference.
Everything was organized at the highest level, very professionally.”
Erzhan Sabirov, Chief Sales Manager, FESCO Central Asia LLC
“Everything went well and in a well-coordinated manner. The topics for discussion at the conference were relevant and interesting!”
More than 200 delegates from Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan), Afghanistan, the Black Sea region, Turkey, China, and Europe came to participate in the conference. Among them were representatives of agricultural exporters and importers, processors, agricultural holdings, industry associations, logistics and law firms, financial institutions, and government agencies.
The two-day conference included both an intensive session program and plenty of time for B2B meetings and negotiations.
During the day's sessions, the participants discussed topical issues of macroeconomics, logistics, trends and prospects of the grain, oilseeds and processed products markets.
This year, the conference program focused on logistics as one of the key factors in the development and functioning of the agricultural market. In particular, disruptions in logistics can significantly slow down its operations. Therefore, a separate session was dedicated to this issue at Asia Grains & Oil Conference in Tashkent 2024. At the same time, given the theme of the conference, the issues of production and trade in grains and oilseeds were raised in almost every presentation.
Berik Bulekbayev, expert consultant to the UNECE, the World Bank, and honorary railway worker, moderated and spoke at the logistics session, and noted that all Central Asian countries are currently interested in jointly developing transport, communication and logistics ties. New foreign policy approaches and concrete political and diplomatic steps in key areas of cooperation taken by the Central Asian states in recent years have actualized the need for regional cooperation and created an optimistic atmosphere in the transport environment, which is an important vector of partnership between the Central Asian states, whose total territory is 3,882,000 square kilometers, population is over 80 mln people, and the total gross domestic product has reached $450 bln. About 20% of the world's uranium reserves, 17% of oil, and 7% of natural gas are concentrated in the region. The total foreign trade turnover of the Central Asian states is more than $200 bln, and the volume of intra-regional trade is also steadily increasing, reaching $11 bln.
The region has every opportunity to become one of the most important transportation, logistics and transit hubs on the planet. Central Asia is rapidly becoming a key link in global transportation communications. First of all, this is the promising Chinese project “One Belt, One Road” and the international transport corridor “North-South”, in which all countries of the region are involved to a greater or lesser extent. Today, the Central Asian states are also promoting other promising ideas for the formation of new transportation corridors. New opportunities are opening up in connection with the development of maritime infrastructure of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan - the ports of Aktau, Kuryk and Turkmenbashi, through which increasing volumes of cargo from China, CA countries to the South Caucasus, Turkey and further to Europe pass.
The expert also noted that in the medium term we should expect an increase in the regional role of Iran and cargo flows. Today, Central Asian countries consider Iran as a trade hub, which will increase exports to Africa and the Middle East.
“In the light of the geopolitical situation and sanctions against Russia, the issue of using Iran's transit potential, which provides the countries of the region with access to the markets of the Arab states, Iraq, India and Pakistan through the Persian Gulf, is becoming increasingly important. For its part, Iran is interested in supplying goods to Central Asian countries, Russia and China through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan,” Mr. Bulekbayev said.
He said that today, thanks to joint efforts, the potential of the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway line is being consistently increased. Since 2022, transportation along the North-South international transport corridor through Bolashak station has increased almost 10 times. Today it is the shortest route to the Persian Gulf countries.
For its part, Kazakhstan is preparing to sign an agreement with Iran on a free trade zone with a turnover of up to $3 bln, with the main focus on agricultural products (including grain).
“The key and most important regional transit center is the port of Bandar Abbas, which is the route connecting the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia with South and Southeast Asia, as well as neighboring countries. About 70% of Iran's trade turnover and transit traffic passes through Bender Abbas,” said Mr. Bulekbayev.
Gani Yesenbayev, acting director of the Integrated Planning Directorate, a branch of KTZ, spoke about the main directions of grain exports and the plans of the department.
According to him, the President of Kazakhstan has set KTZ the task of ensuring grain transportation to China at the level of 2 mln tonnes this year. At the same time, Kazakhstan's grain exports to China have increased 5.7 times over the past 3 years.
He noted that grain transportation to Uzbekistan decreased by 26%, or 631 thsd tonnes, Afghanistan - by 69%, or 219 thsd tonnes, Tajikistan - by 2%, or 14 thsd tonnes, and Iran - by 69%, or 157 thsd tonnes. According to the speaker, this decline is due to changes in market conditions (lower cost per ton of grain and availability of cheap grain from Russia) and Kazakhstan's reorientation to the Chinese market.
At the same time, for the first time in a year and a half, exports to Iran through the port of Aktau have intensified - a large volume of grain was transported in this direction in 12 days of September.
Shipments of milling products to China increased by 1.8 times, or 216 thsd tonnes, Tajikistan - by 38%, or 13 thsd tonnes, and Russia - by 14%, or 2 thsd tonnes. Other destinations showed a decrease in the volume of transportation of these products.
“Thanks to the organizational measures taken in the current season, as well as technical measures to increase the capacity of the Saryagash IHR, there are no abandoned trains in this direction, while 3-4 years ago, during peak periods of transportation, this figure reached 120 trains,” said Mr. Yesenbayev.
He emphasized the increase in shipments of oil and fat products to China.
“The company provides shipments in accordance with the schedule presented by the National Association of Oilseed Processors of Kazakhstan,” the speaker said.
Among the positive aspects of the railway industry development, the KTZ representative noted the work done with the Uzbek Railway Administration to accept growing volumes of transportation in the direction of Central Asia and further to third countries.
Erlan Tulendiyev, CEO of Trans Logistics Capital Group, spoke about the challenges of agri-logistics in Central Asia.
The analysis of the current state of agrarian logistics in Central Asia allows us to draw the following conclusions about the main obstacles to its development:
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Lack of state programs for the development of agri-logistics;
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lack of qualified logistics workers in agricultural enterprises;
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high cost of product logistics programs for local enterprises and lack of tools for implementing the logistics approach;
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lack of funds for the construction of modern warehouses;
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lack of funds for the purchase of modern vehicles;
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lack of improvement of digital programs in the road sector, poor quality of road surfaces in certain areas;
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low investment attractiveness of the agricultural sector in Central Asia.
Mr. Tulendiev also highlighted the problems of railroad logistics. “The bulk of grain in Central Asia is transported by rail, and over the past five years its share has been about 78%. Currently, there are more than 17 thsd grain carriers in Central Asia, and their average age is 25 years, while the standard service life is 30 years. Moreover, about 30% of grain carriers have already reached the end of their service life and are over 30 years old, while 62% of railcars (21-30 years old) have been refined in recent years,” the speaker noted.
When asked whether there is a bright future for agrarian logistics, the expert replied that the main ways to organize and develop the system in agro-logistics are:
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development of a regulatory framework governing the activities of agro-logistics enterprises within the framework of the agro-industrial complex reform;
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development of a national state program for the development of agro-logistics based on the experience of countries with developed logistics systems;
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development and implementation of optimal financing systems;
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increase the investment attractiveness of the logistics network by providing tax and customs benefits to logistics companies for a certain period (e.g., up to 3 years);
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providing agro-logistics organizations with highly qualified personnel and the necessary digital mapping database and its programs.
Stanislav Chuev, Senior Analyst at the EDB Sectoral Analysis Center, said that the potential for increasing the yield of most crops in the Eurasian region is 1.5-2 times. According to the analyst, the climate factor will have a limited impact on food production in the region by 2035, and the development and application of technologies will play a decisive role.
The speaker noted that 10% of the world's agricultural land is concentrated in the Eurasian region. In general, food security in the region is ensured, but not completely.
“Thanks to the development of agriculture, the Eurasian region is a net exporter of food in terms of energy value. However, there are still problems at the level of individual countries and products,” said Mr. Chuev.
In particular, Uzbekistan needs to import grain (73% self-sufficient), vegetable oils (44% self-sufficient), and sugar (0% self-sufficient).
Kazakhstan is 125% self-sufficient in grain, 91% in vegetable oils, and 68% in sugar.
“Mutual trade in agricultural products is an important element of food security. Thus, over the past 20 years, the volume of mutual exports of agricultural products in the region has increased 8.5 times,” the expert emphasized.
In 2024/25 MY Kazakhstan can export about 9 mln tonnes of wheat. Another 2.3 mln tonnes will be shipped to foreign markets in the form of flour (in grain equivalent). This forecast was voiced by Laura Bergibayeva, Sales Director of KazFoodProducts Holding.
According to the holding's experts, the gross wheat harvest in Kazakhstan in the new season will amount to about 16 million tons.
However, despite the high harvest, Kazakhstan may face a number of challenges. In particular, the speaker noted problems with wheat quality (in terms of gluten and protein), lack of drying capacity, and risks of quality loss during acceptance.
According to Ms. Bergibayeva, since the beginning of the harvest in 2024, elevators have received 455 thousand tons of grain, of which 72% is grade 3 wheat, 16% is grade 4 wheat, and about 11% is grade 5.
According to KazFoodProducts forecasts, the price of wheat of the 3rd class this season will be 80,000 tenge/t, 4th class - 70,000 tenge, 5th class - 60,000 tenge, non-grade - 50,000 tenge/t.
Viktor Aslanov, Chairman of the Union of Farmers of Kazakhstan, Independent Director of JSC NC Prodcorporation, summarized the results of the past grain season and outlined the prospects for the new one.
According to him, last season Kazakhstan “rolled back” in terms of soft wheat exports to the level of 5 years ago. The expert noted the acquisition of a new market, China, but at the same time the loss of Afghanistan.
Uzbekistan remains the main market for Kazakhstan's soft wheat, although it also reduced imports - 2.56 mln tonnes were shipped to this country during 11 months of the current season (3.61 mln tonnes during the same period of the previous season).
During the same period, 590 thousand tons of Kazakh wheat were exported to China (344 thousand tons in the first 11 months of the previous season).
According to Mr. Aslanov, in the current season Kazakhstan will face an absolute record of wheat supply - 20 mln tonnes (in 2011 - 19 mln tonnes).
Also, according to the expert, Kazakhstan expects a record harvest of sunflower seeds this year - about 2 mln tonnes. The estimate has been increased due to higher oilseed yields - up to 19 c/ha (in 2023 - about 12 c/ha).
Ekaterina Khalikova, Marketing Director of AsiaAgroFood JSC, spoke about the trends in the flour and feed market in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and expectations for the near future.
She noted that many processing enterprises in Kazakhstan are gradually shifting from flour production to feed production as a more promising business area. According to the expert's forecasts, in 2024, the production of mixed fodder will increase to 5 mln tonnes (4.6 mln tonnes in 2023), while the production of flour and bran will decrease. Accordingly, the exports of mixed fodder are expected to grow significantly (this year it may exceed 400 thsd tonnes) and flour exports will decline.
Ms. Khalikova said that for decades, Kazakhstan has been exporting flour within the traditional markets, 60-65% - to Afghanistan, the rest - mainly to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan.
Interestingly, Uzbekistan is increasing the processing of wheat grain for export to Afghanistan - 100% of flour produced from Kazakh wheat is shipped in this direction. In 2023, this figure amounted to 820 thsd tonnes, which is 4 times higher than the volume of flour exports in 2017.
The speaker noted the possible risks in the new season, including higher prices for quality flour (amid a low-protein grain harvest), losses of grain producers and a decrease in grain acreage, a ban on wheat imports from Russia and an increase in raw material exports to the detriment of processed products.
At the same time, according to Ms. Khalikova, there are a number of opportunities to maintain Kazakhstan's exports: production of high-value-added goods (modified starches, pasta, confectionery, etc.), opening of new markets, reduction of logistics costs and/or new logistics corridors.
According to the information presented at the conference, the situation in the oil and fat segment is more optimistic.
Thus, over the past two seasons, total exports of fat-and-oil products from Kazakhstan (vegetable oils and meal/cake) exceeded $1 bln. Such data was announced by the Executive Director of the National Association of Oilseed Processors of Kazakhstan (NOPA) Alexander Yashkov.
He specified that in 2022/23 MY the exports of oils and meals from Kazakhstan in monetary terms amounted to $509 mln (+22% compared to the previous season), and for 11 months of the current MY it has already reached $520 mln.
According to the NOPA, last season 778 thsd tonnes of Kazakh oil and fat products were exported in physical terms, and for 11 months of 2023/24 MY - about 946 thsd tonnes (+22%).
Mr. Yashkov noted an increase in the supply of oil and fat products to China, not only to the Western but also to the Central region. China ranks the first in terms of imports of these products - according to the results of 11 months of the current MY, the country shipped vegetable oils and meal/cake for $190 mln.
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan took the second and third places with $175 mln and $77 mln respectively.
The speaker also said that the supply of oil and fat products to European countries has become regular from sporadic to regular. Thus, Latvia entered the TOP-5 importers for 11 months of this season with the figure of $23 mln.
In addition, Kazakhstani exporters are actively developing supplies to the Iranian market - $18 mln worth of oil and fat products were shipped to this country.
Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Sweden, Germany and Oman also entered the top 10 importers of Kazakhstani oil and fat products in 11 months of the current MY.
“According to the forecasts of the National Association of Oilseed Processors of Kazakhstan, in the new 2024/25 MY the export of oil and fat products to the Central Asian countries will increase by 6-10% and may reach 600 thsd tonnes,” -Mr. Yashkov noted.
Another presentation was devoted to Afghanistan, the traditional market for Kazakh flour. Despite the growing pressure from Russia, Kazakhstan (with a share of 62%) and Uzbekistan (35%) are still leading in flour exports to Afghanistan. This was reported by Maryna Sidak, an expert analyst of the agricultural market.
She also said that the market of sunflower oil in Afghanistan is being fought between Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey. Moreover, Kazakhstan is strengthening its position.
The speaker clarified that until recently, the Russian Federation was the main supplier of this product to Afghanistan, supplying from 18 to 76 thsd tonnes of sunflower oil annually.
However, over the past two years, Kazakhstan has significantly strengthened its position in this market. While in 2017-2021 the volumes of sunflower oil supplies to Afghanistan did not exceed 6.5 thsd tonnes annually, in 2022 the exports increased to 17.5 thsd tonnes, and in 2023 - to 20.3 thsd tonnes.
Turkey has also increased the supply of sunflower oil in this direction - if in the period of 2017-2020 the annual exports amounted to 2 to 4 thsd tonnes, in 2020 it increased to 11.3 thsd tonnes, in 2021 - to 24 thsd tonnes. In 2023, as the speaker noted, supplies decreased to 13.7 thsd tonnes.
The information part of the conference was quite intense. Speakers at the oilseeds session of Asia Grains & Oils Conference in Tashkent 2024 presented reports on the development of the oil and fat industry in Uzbekistan and China, as well as technological aspects, which we intend to dedicate a separate article to.
The second day of the conference, September 19, was fully dedicated to B2B negotiations. The conference participants spent it in an offsite format at Amirsoy Mountain Resort, enjoying nature and communicating with agribusiness colleagues.
The conference organizers thank all participants and partners of the fourth international conference Asia Grains & Oils Conference in Tashkent 2024!
We hope that the information received at the event was interesting and useful, and that communication and contacts will help in the development of your business and give you an impetus to conquer new heights!
The event was supported by the Association of Oil and Fat Enterprises of the Republic of Uzbekistan “ Uzyogmoysanoat” and the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Uzbekistan.
The sponsors were the following companies: HUATAI (general sponsor), Myande (innovation sponsor), Kemiline Agro (gold sponsor), KazFoodProducts, Fayz Oil Imports, SELVIT, DREAM OIL group, EVNAT.
We are waiting for everyone at the conference venues of APK-Inform Asia - follow the announcements of the events on APK-Inform website!
Prepared by Olena Cherednichenko, Tatiana Lyagusha
