In a recent USDA report, experts forecast that over the next decade, Africa, the Middle East, China, Southeast Asia, West Asia, and Latin America will emerge as key drivers of global trade. The surge in demand for food products in these regions is projected to fuel this growth, marking a significant shift in global trade dynamics.
China is projected to remain the world’s leading importer of soybeans, accounting for 62.4% of global soybean imports by 2033/34 MY. Demand from China will drive continued growth in soybean trade during the next 10 years, as world soybean imports climb 44.8 mln tonnes (+25.3%) to 221.6 mln tonnes.
In addition, China’s annual coarse grain imports are projected to reach 44.2 mln tonnes by 2033/34 MY, an increase of 3.4 mln tonnes but well below the historic high of 50.5 mln tonnes reached in 2020/21 MY.
In 2033/34 MY, China, the world’s largest importer, is projected to import 26.0 mln tonnes of corn, with almost no growth in imports. Growth in China’s feed demand is projected to outpace expansion of domestic corn production. To meet feed demand, China’s sorghum and barley imports are expected to see strong growth—reaching 9.1 mln tonnes and 8.6 mln tonnes, respectively, by 2033/34 MY.
China will remain the leading sorghum importer, accounting for about 83% of global sorghum trade, with imports steady at 9.1 mln tonnes through 2033/34 MY. While corn imports in China can be subject to a quota, no quotas exist on imports of sorghum or barley.
Moreover, China is expected to remain the world’s largest barley importer from 8.5 mln tonnes to 8.6 mln tonnes per year from 2024/25 MY through 2033/34 MY. This is less than the peak of 12.0 mln tonnes, reached in 2020/21 MY. Feed demand is a major driver of barley imports during the projection period, but China is also a large importer of malting barley, mainly for beer production. China’s 28.3% share of global barley imports in 2024/25 MY declines to 25.9% by 2033/34 MY.
At the same time, China’s wheat imports are projected to fall gradually from 10.7 mln tonnes to 9.7 mln tonnes by 2033/34 MY as authorities prioritize food grain output and draw from large reserves.
We will discuss the prospects of trade with China during the international conference Chinese Grains&Oils Congress, which will be held on April 10-12 in Shanghai. The guests of the conference will have the opportunity to make direct business contacts with Chinese partners and agree on mutually beneficial cooperation.
Register on the APK-Inform website.
Hurry up! Register before March 10 to take advantage of the most favorable registration terms available!
