Due to the restrictions imposed by Russia on imports and partially on the transit of agricultural products, Kazakhstan will be forced to reorient its logistics to the ports of the Baltic countries. This will lead to an increase in the price of agricultural products for European importers by about $30 per tonnes, head of the analytics committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan Yevgeny Karabanov told APK-Inform.
"In the current circumstances, Kazakhstan has the only alternative - the ports of the Baltic States. This is an additional +$30 on each tonnes. Someone has to pay for it: either buyers or exporters, more precisely, Kazakhstani farmers. Depending on the conjuncture will pay either one or the other,’ - said the expert.
As for sunflower seeds - Russian farmers often bought imported seed and brought it through Kazakhstan, because the prices for Russian sunflower seeds (seed material) are too high. According to E. Karabanov, they reach 40 rubles per sowing unit (for 2-2.1 hectares).
‘Many imported imported seeds, hybrids through Kazakhstan... But now Russia has blocked this way,’ the expert noted.
According to him, due to the restrictions on the supply of wheat (including durum) will have to ship products either by small ships (it is expensive freight) or large (with overpayment on tariff).
"Kazakhstan wanted to enter the global durum and wheat market with its 12.5 protein. Given the export rates from Ukraine and Russia - by February 2025 they will have nothing to ship. Romania and Bulgaria, I think, will be empty by January. France and Germany have their own problems. I.e. Europe will not be able to offer anything either. In the whole Black Sea region only Kazakhstan can offer durum and soft flour-milling wheat - the export potential of such grain is 2-2.5 mln tonnes... To sum up - we will be locked in with our grain,’ warns E. Karabanov.
There is also a risk that Russia may refuse to approve transit of products towards Baltic ports if Kazakhstan introduces any additional restrictions on Russian products.
"Another of the limiting factors may be problems with logistics in the direction of Russian ports for direct transshipment - traffic on the Russian Railways network is slowed down, especially in the direction of Black Sea ports. Exporters will inevitably incur additional costs when rail wagons are idle, ships are demurred, deadweight is limited, etc.,’ the expert believes.
As previously reported APK-Inform, from 17 October Russia introduced temporary restrictions on imports of agricultural products from Kazakhstan.
