Global wheat trade volumes in the current season are expected to decrease by 11% compared to the 2023/24 MY. This estimate was announced by Filippo Bertuzzi, Senior Market Analyst at Areté (Agrifood Intelligence Company), during the international conference “Baltic Grains & Oils Conference” in Riga on April 16.
This forecast is based on the expectation that key wheat market players will significantly reduce both exports and imports of the grain. According to the expert, the EU is expected to cut its wheat exports by 30% this season, while Russia will reduce its exports by 21%. Ukraine, in the 2024/25 MY, is projected to decrease wheat exports by 14%, primarily due to extremely low carryover stocks at the start of the season.
At the same time, wheat supplies to international markets may increase from Canada (+4%), Australia (+29%), the USA (+16%), as well as from countries outside the TOP 5 wheat exporters: Argentina (+40%) and Kazakhstan (+28%).
As for the TOP 5 wheat importers, an increase in purchases is expected only from Egypt (+1%). Other leading buyers of the grain will reduce imports: Indonesia by 12%, the EU by 15%, Algeria by 1%, and most notably, China (by 74%).
Meanwhile, the current estimate for global wheat production, as noted by F. Bertuzzi, is 1% higher than last season's figure. Specifically, the EU has harvested the lowest wheat crop since the 2007/08 MY (along with significant quality issues), while Russia has seen a decrease in total harvest compared to the previous two seasons (due to smaller harvested areas and lower yields). Ukraine, at the same time, has almost stable wheat production (+2% compared to the 2023/24 MY), while the country's sown areas remain 30% below pre-war levels.
In the USA, wheat production, both winter and spring wheat, continues to recover (the highest production level since 2016, +9% compared to last season). Canada is also seeing an increase in total wheat harvest (+6%) due to the recovery in yields after the 2023 drought (a similar situation applies to durum wheat). In Australia, experts estimate a significant 31% increase in wheat production this season, while in Kazakhstan, the growth is even more substantial, at +53%.
