The world market has moved to the global oil production deficit due to the strong demand combined with the tendency of production and stocks reduction. In particular, in 2024/25 MY, the increase in the global supply of 17 main types of oils and fats may be only 1.6 mln tonnes compared to 8.8 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY. This was announced by Thomas Mielke, Editor-in-Chief and CEO of OIL WORLD, during his speech at the XXII International Conference “Fat-and-Oil Industry-2024”, which is held on October 30 in Kyiv.
"Oilseed consumers and producers will have to prepare for higher prices in 2024/25 MY. The main reason is a steady increase in demand for oil worldwide. For example, in 2003/04 MY the increase in demand for oil was 4.1 mln tonnes per year, in 2013/14 MY - 7.1 mln tonnes per year, in 2023/24 MY - 5.9 mln tonnes per year,” he specified.
Currently, the energy sector accounts for 20% of the total global consumption of 17 types of oils and fats. The expected insufficient increase in global supplies of UCO and other raw materials in the coming years will maintain a high dependence on palm, soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil as raw materials for biofuel production.
The expert noted that over the past 4 years, there has been a significant fluctuation in palm oil prices, which in May 2020 were formed in the range of $530 per ton and rose to $1900 per ton in March 2022.
“Only in the last 5 weeks till October 24, 2024, we have seen the price increase by $110-180 per ton, or by 10-18% for 4 main types of oil,” the expert noted.
According to Oil World estimates, the world stocks of 17 types of oils and fats in 2024/25 MY will amount to 265.6 mln tonnes, of which the share of palm oil will be 31.5%, soybean oil - 24.9%, rapeseed oil - 11.6%, and sunflower oil - 8.5%.
